ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE BRIEF - 2 November 2026

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

2 November 2026

1. October GST collections rise 22.9% to ₹2.31 lakh crore

   Provisional government data released on 1 November show gross GST collections at ₹2,31,290 crore, while net collections after refunds reached ₹2,03,356 crore, up 25.6%. Import-related collections rose 42.2%, compared with 15.8% growth in domestic collections.

   Why it matters: The figures indicate strong revenue mobilisation, although the sharp rise in import-linked collections should be distinguished from growth in domestic activity.

   Sources: Reuters | The Times of India, detailed breakdown

2. Important GST amendments take effect from 1 November

   Sections 153 to 155 of the Finance Act, 2026, brought into force through Notification No. 03/2026-Central Tax, ease the conditions for recognising post-supply discounts and extend provisional refund provisions to eligible businesses facing inverted duty structures.

   Why it matters: These changes may simplify tax compliance and improve working-capital availability for eligible businesses.

   Sources: Official Gazette notification | Reuters explanation

3. Coal-fired power generation rises sharply as hydropower output declines

   Reuters calculations using Grid-India data show coal-fired generation increased 25.7% year-on-year in October, while hydropower generation fell 26%. Renewable generation rose 34.7%, but the clean-energy share of total generation declined from 17% in September to around 15% in October.

   Why it matters: The figures highlight the challenge of meeting rising electricity demand while managing seasonal dependence on coal and hydropower and expanding renewable energy.

   Source: Reuters

4. Foreign investors withdraw ₹34,843 crore from Indian equities in October

   Data from Central Depository Services (India) Limited, reported by PTI on 1 November, show a second consecutive month of substantial FPI outflows. However, FPIs turned net buyers in the final week of October, investing approximately ₹6,300 crore between 26 and 30 October.

   Why it matters: The late-month buying offers a positive near-term signal, but one week of inflows does not yet establish a sustained reversal in foreign investment flows.

   Source: The Economic Times, PTI report

5. China's central bank shifts towards an overnight-rate-based operating framework

   On 2 November, the People's Bank of China injected 541 billion yuan through overnight reverse-repurchase agreements at 1.25%. The new framework introduces daily overnight operations and changes the seven-day reverse-repo mechanism to multiple-rate bidding.

   Why it matters: This is an important change in China's monetary-policy operating framework, intended to strengthen short-term interest-rate signalling and liquidity management.

   Source: Reuters

6. Crude oil prices ease amid diplomatic efforts over Iran

   On 2 November, Brent crude fell 1.4% to $111.84 per barrel and US WTI declined 1.5% to $102.56 in early trading. The decline followed renewed Iran-Qatar discussions aimed at ending the conflict. OPEC+ also retained its December production targets.

   Why it matters: The easing offers some short-term relief, but prices remain elevated. Sustained volatility could affect India's oil import bill, domestic inflation and current account balance.

   Source: Reuters oil-market report

7. Binance faces significant withdrawals following a major cryptocurrency theft

   Reuters reported on 2 November that approximately $6.3 billion in cryptocurrency was stolen in a security breach last week. Customers withdrew a net $3.64 billion as the exchange resumed services. Binance said it had covered around 95% of the stolen assets. The FBI attributed the attack to North Korea's state-sponsored TraderTraitor unit.

   Why it matters: The incident highlights the importance of cybersecurity, custody arrangements, operational resilience and customer confidence in digital-asset platforms.

   Source: Reuters

8. Asian markets face pressure over concerns about AI investment returns

   Asian equities declined on 2 November as investors reassessed the scale and sustainability of technology companies' artificial- intelligence capital expenditure. Reuters reported rising costs of insuring against corporate defaults and market caution ahead of major technology-company earnings.

   Why it matters: The development highlights the risk of valuation adjustments if large AI investments do not translate into expected earnings and cash flows, with potential spillovers to global equity markets.

   Source: Reuters global markets report