ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
24 October 2026 | Economic, Financial, Banking and Global Developments
1. RBI Revises Bank Leverage-Ratio Requirements
On 23 October, the Reserve Bank of India issued final directions aligning banks' leverage-ratio framework with the Basel Committee's 2017 standard. The minimum leverage ratio remains 4% for domestic systemically important banks and 3.5% for other banks. The revised framework strengthens the calculation and disclosure of exposures, including derivatives and off-balance-sheet commitments, and takes effect on 1 April 2027.
Why it matters: Banks must prepare their capital calculations, exposure reporting and compliance systems ahead of implementation.
2. RBI's October Bulletin Highlights Economic Resilience Alongside Inflation Risks
The Bulletin's State of the Economy assessment, reported on 23 October, highlighted strong domestic demand, manufacturing and services activity, and improving exports. It also noted that the IMF had raised its FY2026–27 growth projection for India to 7%. September CPI inflation stood at 5.5%, while foreign-exchange reserves covered 10.6 months of goods imports as of 16 October.
Why it matters: Domestic demand and external buffers support resilience, but energy prices, food inflation and geopolitical uncertainty remain important risks.
3. India's Business Activity Reaches a Four-Month High
A preliminary survey published by Reuters on 23 October showed the HSBC India Composite PMI rising to 56.7 in October, from 55.9 in September. Services led the expansion, while manufacturing activity continued to grow. However, employment was unchanged in the services sector, ending a nine-month hiring streak, and manufacturing recruitment slowed.
Why it matters: The survey signals continued private-sector expansion, but employment trends warrant attention when assessing the breadth of the recovery. PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion.
4. IndusInd Bank Returns to Quarterly Profitability
On 23 October, IndusInd Bank reported standalone Q2 FY2026–27 net profit of ₹1,176 crore, compared with a loss of ₹445 crore a year earlier. Net interest income rose 4% year-on-year to ₹4,569 crore, while the gross NPA ratio improved to 2.73%. Net interest margin, however, declined sequentially to 3.23%, partly reflecting the cost of recently mobilised foreign-currency deposits.
Why it matters: The results indicate improving profitability and asset quality, while highlighting the importance of funding costs and deployment of FCNR(B) deposits.
5. Shriram Finance Flags Rising Delinquencies in Gold Loans
Results reported on 23 October showed standalone quarterly profit increasing to ₹3,677 crore from ₹2,307 crore a year earlier. However, gross Stage 3 gold loans, overdue by more than 90 days, rose to 3.12% of its gold-loan portfolio, compared with 2.57% in the previous quarter and 2.28% a year earlier.
Why it matters: The divergence between strong earnings and deteriorating performance in one lending segment highlights the importance of granular asset-quality monitoring as gold-backed lending expands.
6. Government Authorises 6,500 Tonnes of Silver Imports Over Six Months
A report published on 24 October said the government had allowed additional silver imports through a six-month allocation, with the aim of improving domestic availability during the festive and wedding season. The impact on prices will depend on actual imports, global silver prices and domestic demand.
Why it matters: Additional supplies could ease domestic premiums and moderate price pressures in silver jewellery, although the effect is not guaranteed.
7. Russia's Central Bank Holds Its Policy Rate at 14%
On 23 October, the Bank of Russia kept its key interest rate unchanged and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1%–7.6%, from 6%–7% previously. It cited persistent price pressures, higher fuel costs and supply disruptions.
Why it matters: The decision illustrates the challenge of containing inflation when supply constraints and government spending sustain price pressures. Russia's economic conditions differ from India's, so the policy decision is not directly comparable with RBI policy.
8. Oil Prices Rise While Gold Falls Below $4,000 an Ounce
On 23 October, Brent crude rose to around $116.72 per barrel, according to AP, amid concerns about disruptions to global oil supplies. Reuters reported that gold briefly fell below $4,000 per ounce, heading for its steepest weekly decline in more than four months as higher energy prices reinforced expectations of elevated US interest rates.
Why it matters: Higher oil prices can intensify global inflation risks, while shifting interest-rate expectations can affect bond yields, precious metals and emerging-market capital flows. These are reported market levels, not forecasts.
Overall Takeaway
The main developments are the RBI's revised prudential framework, continued economic expansion alongside inflation risks, and mixed signals from bank earnings and asset quality. India's silver-import decision may improve domestic supply, while elevated oil prices and changing global interest-rate expectations remain important external risks.
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